New Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto will have a big advantage over his two most recent predecessors — he’s lucky.

Consider some of the things that work in Mexico’s favor:

• After its worst economic crisis in recent memory, the U.S. economy is likely to grow slowly but steadily over the next two years, and — if the U.S. Congress gets its act together and cuts the deficit — could increase by more than 3 percent by 2014, according to most economic forecasts. That will be a boon to Mexico, which relies on the U.S. market for 82 percent of its exports.

• Growing numbers of multinational companies, including automakers and technology firms, are moving their production facilities from China to Mexico because of the rising labor costs in China. According to a Boston Consulting Group study, China’s wages in the technology sector will rise from 72 cents an hour in 2000 to $6.31 in 2015. Already, the gap between Chinese and Mexican salaries has narrowed substantially, the study says.

I witnessed firsthand how expensive China has become on a trip there last month, when I paid $10 for a cup of coffee at the Xian airport, and $4.50 for a cup of coffee at various Starbucks around the country, much more than I remember paying on a previous visit to China.

• Mexico may benefit from President Barack Obama’s proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal among Pacific rim countries of Asia and America, which may be signed as early as next year and would become the world’s biggest and most ambitious free trade agreement.

The TPP would allow Mexico to update its 1994 free trade agreement with the United States and Canada, and get preferential access to South East Asian markets.

via Mexico’s Peña Nieto has luck on his side – Andres Oppenheimer – MiamiHerald.com.